The last months on the globe are tense. Recent weeks are even more intense. Especially from the general circle of countries demonstrating their capabilities in terms of вЂњsurpriseвЂќ everyone to show their military skills and capabilities, the USA stands out. The activity that the United States is now demonstrating in demonstrating its military capabilities, as well as their inclusion in certain discussions, demonstrates the acuteness of the moment. It is unmeasured and reflects the fact that humanity is at a bifurcation point and the exit from this point will definitely not be easy.
The most difficult and important question is not really the question of the consequences of this вЂњmilitary exacerbationвЂќ or even the reasons for it. The main question is how this alarmism fits into the framework of American politics, taking into account the upcoming elections. On the one hand, a demonstration of power (almost any) creates a sense of security and pride in their individual categories of voters for their country, their army, etc. It is, of course, not about the fact that society already knew all the sorrows of the war, met the echelons of the wounded, received many funerals from the fronts. In this case, of course, the mood of society will change. However, the manifestations of military-demonstrative activity make it possible to get what can be obtained from the war in terms of improving the social mood, without guaranteed problems of a real war, from what was already said in the person of the wounded and killed...
But on the other hand, an excessive demonstration of power begins to bear a negative connotation. People begin to try on military uniforms mentally, and this fitting does not set everyone in a positive way. If you overdo it too much with a demonstration of military potentials, then involuntarily the idea of a big war is laid, which society does not particularly endorse without quick and easy victories.
Now in the USA, obviously, the period of active demonstration of power at all possible power. TV screens, pages of sites, everything is replete with the fact that it rides, floats, flies, shoots in the characteristic colors of the armed forces. And although the US has always loved demonstrations, now they have grown substantially and this is an obvious fact. What it is, why it arose, and how it is associated with the current moment in American and world politics, letвЂ™s try to analyze and evaluate it.
Attack on the last bastions
Just the other day, the United States questioned the existence of the latest international treaties in the field of global security. Following the treaty on missile defense (ABM), the treaty on intermediate and shorter-range missile systems, the Open Skies Agreement (DON) also goes into oblivion. Against the horizon loomed the shadow of Powers, a downed American pilot performing a reconnaissance flight.
The contract itself is probably outdated. He offered legal reconnaissance flights on specially trained aircraft over the territories of other countries, according to the approved schedule and with the escort, without the threat of being shot down by a вЂњpotential enemyвЂќ. It seems to be excellent conditions. But in the age of unmanned aerial vehicles, serious satellite constellations, computer geological and geophysical modeling, reconnaissance aircraft for the United States is an anachronism. But this is only one side of the coin вЂ” the technical one. There are two more sides вЂ” the international political and symbolic ones, which at the same time also begin to suffer, and perhaps even more so than the technical one.
The international political in this case simply means one thing вЂ” the United States has once again shown to its European allies that the interests of these same US allies are not interesting. Russia will not remain in an open skies agreement without the United States. Russia simply does not need this, and it hits the image quite hard. So Russia will also withdraw from this treaty. Moreover, both in the field of reconnaissance drones and in the field of satellite constellation (against the background of the recent launch of the next military satellite), Russia is all the more or less in order. This is not true of European countries that, without a DON treaty, remain virtually the site of the intelligence games of the United States and Russia. Moreover, they themselves can not actually do anything. The feeling that arose after the cancellation of the agreement on missiles of short and medium-range, the European partners of the United States will strengthen вЂ” the United States throws its partners.
The symbolic component lies in the plane of the era when the treaty on open skies appeared, and in the very concept of openness, appearing in the name of this treaty, which was one of the symbols of detente in the bipolar world. That is why some commentators immediately started talking about a certain arms race, which is funny, because Both the USA and Russia were already engaged in the production of drones, and we're expanding the satellite constellation. Is this an arms race? No. This is not an arms race. This is just a normal development of the defense system, no matter how it seems to anyone.
Everything in the sea, everything in the air
What does American alarmism look like? Just as the United States is now demonstrating it. And demonstrates on all fronts. But if the land component in the form of large-scale exercises in Eastern Europe failed, thanks to the coronavirus, then the sea and air are now in full swing.
To begin with, the United States defiantly advertised drove into the sea almost everything that is ready for sailing. At the same time, there are 7 aircraft carrier strike groups in the sea, ships within the framework of the American, supposedly anti-drug squadron, in the Caribbean, the exercises in the North Atlantic have just ended, the movement of American warships in the Taiwan area is quite active. There is less information about submarines, but some of them have been seen demonstratively leaving the home port. Ships experience new weapons systems, a combat laser (against drones), and a host of other interesting things. At the same time, they do it deliberately, in no case wanting to get away from prying eyes. The intensity of flights of American military aircraft sharply increased. At the same time, all types of aircraft are actively used, from F-22, F-35 fighters to B-1 strategic bombers, and even such an anachronism as the notorious F-117 flying iron, which was successfully shot down in Yugoslavia in 1999. At the same time, activity is very revealing. Fighters demonstrate all over the country (the Americans are well aware of the silhouettes of these aircraft) and are especially active in Alaska, where it was decided to transfer 54 F-35s. Given the fact that these aircraft вЂ” designs are gentle and poorly tolerant including temperature effects, this decision is extremely controversial. Apparently, after being on duty in Alaska, part of the planes will have to be sent to repair the stealth cover (but this is not our concern).
Moreover, in a week the US military managed to lose two planes at once, one F-22 and one F-35. This indicates primarily an increase in flight intensity. More flights вЂ” more glitches. The demonstration of strategic bombers looks even more revealing. Their approach to simulating a missile strike in Kaliningrad, Murmansk, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (where Russian fleets are based) is indicative and impudent. But first of all, it is fraught with a threat, but a warning, a kind of message. In military affairs, they do not demonstrate a strike if they want to strike. In military affairs he is being trained.
Now the United States has begun to show its determination and readiness in full. But it resembles the effect of a porcupine, which opens its needles when it wants to scare someone, feeling a certain danger. Do not come. I am armed.
Are there limits to confrontation? Now in space!
Against this background, another event took place in the United States, which will determine the entire construction of the US defense policy for the next decade. Created the command of space forces.
This is actually a very significant event. The United States, before announcing a program of mining on the moon, as it were, has set aside the basis for an interested voter to explain why America needs space command. In order to protect the US economic interests in space. But this, of course, is just a common rationale. By and large, the United States already possessed quite serious forces in outer space, the world's largest satellite constellation, communication systems, launching pads for launching spacecraft. All this, of course, was applied in practice, however, it was divided between different defense ministries (note вЂ” in the USA, in addition to the Ministry of Defense, there is also a Ministry of the Navy, the Ministry of the Air Force, etc.). The creation of a special command will allow, firstly, to consolidate the available resources, and secondly, to reflect the increased role of using space for military purposes. And this requires both personnel and finance. It is not for nothing that opinion appeared in the expert community that now the military budget of the US defense department will be adjusted for new tasks.
And although nowadays fantasies, such as the American SDI program (strategic defense initiative), the dummies presented by the American president Ronald Reagan are not looming on the horizon (although they sometimes try to revive the corpse through various kinds of phenomenal proposals), American actions cannot but cause tension and concern. But this concern should not develop into any kind of active action.
By and large, the United States is not the first country in the world to declare a military space. By the way, the Russian Military Space Forces have been a given for more than a year. Thus, it is unlikely that anything will change in the strategy for responding to this change. But inside the United States is possible. Because the emergence of a new command is always interested, it is always a change in the ties and capabilities of certain groups. Thus, the figurative and demonstrative use of the available forces was accompanied during the week also by symbolic organizational decisions and actions. But the question arises: why such activity, how does it fit into the existing alignment of political forces in the USA?
What is behind the screen?
The fact of American militarization on the face. The fact that this militarization is deliberately put on public display, too. The totality of the exercises, demonstration flights, and other forms of practicing combat training, sometimes very dangerous (such as the movement of the American strategic bomber B-1 in the Sea of Okhotsk) should seem to indicate the desire of the United States to use armed forces against Russia. But this is not at all true.
US actions in the military sphere now have two obvious indicators.
The first is the formation of a sense of pride in the US armed forces among its own population. The span of combat aircraft within sight of citizens, a demonstration of military equipment on television screens forms a sense of security and pride in their country. About the same effect as from a small and victorious war. True, you canвЂ™t write in textbooks, but what can you do? This is highly desirable in a pandemic and economic crisis. And in the context of warlike rhetoric regarding China, it has a certain calming significance.
The second is actually the concept of Russian-American relations. Demonstration of fighters in Alaska. Squadrons in the North Atlantic and strategic bombers working off attacks on Kaliningrad, Murmansk, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, this of course cannot be recognized as friendly steps by the United States towards Russia. However, the Americans understand that a large-scale war with Russia is impossible in principle since it threatens primarily the United States itself, their economy, their military machine, etc.
These movements are designed to demonstrate three points.
First, to give the Kremlin a signal that the United States, in the light of any future actions, is ready for a tough confrontation with Russia (this is debatable, but the signs should not, in the end, coincide with reality, for that they are signs). Although the Kremlin is unlikely to buy such a thing.
Secondly, to give a signal to everyone that the United States is not afraid of a violent confrontation with Russia.
Over the past 10 years, the world has seen a tendency to perceive Russia as a force capable of competing with the United States in military-technical matters. It is addressed to Venezuela and Iran, Syria, and China. Anyone who chooses Russian weapons and cooperation.
The third is a demonstration of China. It is China that is currently the platform for testing American pressure. Moreover, such pressure is primarily aimed not at the US military influence on China (such an operation will cost the US the last vestiges of its geopolitical status), but rather a preemptive Chinese military response to inciting anti-Chinese actions in Hong Kong (which we are seeing right now), and the separatism of Taiwan, preparing to proclaim itself an independent state.
China has already stated that it is ready to respond to these challenges, including military force. The United States has already stated that it will not tolerate such an answer from China. But in reality, if China decides to use military force, the United States will not be able to oppose it. Not in Taiwan. Not even so in Hong Kong. But the promotion makes a noble one.
Whatever the current confrontation between the United States and China, whatever the events in Hong Kong and Taiwan may lead to, one thing is certain вЂ” the world has become different. And the world is rapidly rushing to the collapse of the existing system of international security. Since it is chopped by a dying hegemon, chopped, dies, and kills. At the same time. Soon.