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The opponents of Trump can't agree. Their differences will help him become president again

The opponents of Trump can't agree. Their differences will help him become president again

The new US presidential election on November 3 is still eight months away, but the election race is already in full swing. March 3 was the traditional “super Tuesday” — the largest voting day in the country, on which candidates compete for the support of their parties in many states simultaneously. This year, it decided the fate of the Democrats and who will be Donald Trump's main rival in the fall. And now it is safe to say that the Democratic Party has once again bet on moderation, afraid of too radical a trend. How the events of the American “super Tuesday” were developing and which of the presidential contenders was winning...

The American parties approached the “super Tuesday2020” in completely different forms. Everything is obvious to the Republicans: no one seriously disputes Trump's right to run for the second time, the party has literally rallied around the incumbent president. Yes, formally, the Reds are also holding their primaries, but there is no real struggle with them, as there will not be during the official election of a candidate at the congress next summer.

But the Democrats did not have a single leader. In fact, the party continued to be divided over the years between supporters of moderate politics and supporters of a more radical approach. And since it is not ordinary people who vote on “Super Tuesday”, but members of the party for their own candidates, the process that is actually capable of revealing an almost unconditional leader turned out to be extremely dramatic.

This time, the Democrats distributed one third (1357) of all the votes of the party electorate — people who will officially choose Trump's opponent at the national convention of the party in summer. For comparison, a candidate needs to get at least 1991 votes to be nominated.

Bernie Sanders.
Photo: Andy Clayton-King / AP

The Democrats had three main candidates. By March 3, Vermont state senator Bernie Sanders, a socialist and supporter of radical change, was the leader of the polls. In particular, he proposed to stop military operations abroad, introduce free medicine and increase taxes for wealthy citizens. At the same time, he says he does not know where to get the money for universal free health care, and increasingly resembles the radical Trump in 2016.

The second place was taken by former vice president Joe Biden, whose name was repeatedly voiced in the press in connection with the scandal around Trump and Ukraine. He proposes restoring U.S. membership in the Iranian nuclear deal, raising the minimum wage and expanding trade union powers. Initially, he was called the main rival of the current American leader, but then his position was shaken. But in the end, his not-so-well-performing results in the Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada primaries were overshadowed by a crushing victory in South Carolina, where black populations are high.

In his favor played and exit the race just before the “Super-Tuesday” Senator Amy Clobouchard, as well as the former mayor and open gay Pete Buttidzic. They called on their supporters to support Biden, which is seen as a call for moderate democrats to unite against the radical Sanders. “A struggle has begun between two Septuagenarians (people aged 70 to 79 years): a revolution led by Sanders against the restoration led by Biden,” wrote the Politico.

The dark horse, the third challenger, and another moderate candidate was the former mayor of New York, billionaire Michael Bloomberg. He completely missed the first primaries for “super Tuesday”, where he hoped to shoot. For that, he invested hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising. He also planned to attract black voters, but in this field, his chances were limited by Biden's latest success. Bloomberg's entry into the game, however, could have taken votes away from the vice president.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren also stood out. In general, her views were similar to those of Sanders, but she tried to be a less radical politician. Her bid during the February primaries did not come true, but she did not withdraw her candidacy until “super Tuesday”, hoping to win her home state. The fifth challenger, the Hawaiian congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, had no chance of winning in principle.

“Let's win Tuesday, run from the Democratic Party, beat Trump and transform the country!” — said Sanders after the South Carolina defeat. In the end, on March 3, he could break out into almost unconditional leaders, but the Democrats' unwillingness to support his strong left-wing and socialist views did make his mark.

Who will win?

In the current “Super Tuesday”, voting took place in 14 states and on the territory of American Samoa. In total, this is about 130 million citizens — ten times more than in the four regions where the primaries and caucuses took place in February. At the same time, the states of the “Super Tuesday” are more heterogeneous in the racial composition of the population: in 53 percent of the white population versus 64 in those where the primaries will be held later.

The biggest change this year is the postponement of voting in California, the most populous state. It usually took place there in June, when the results were more or less clear. It was in California that Sanders made a serious bet (in 2016, he devastatingly lost there to Hillary Clinton). According to surveys, he was the only one who could overcome the mark of 15 percent of the Democrats supporting him throughout the state. Such a victory would be a huge incentive for his campaign.

So far, the results for the state are preliminary, but it seems that Sanders will win there. However, this result will bring him a few advantages: in total, he takes first place in only three states — in his native Vermont, Colorado, and Utah.

While the struggle continues in Texas, which all candidates have relied on. However, even here Sanders seems to give way to Biden. Bloomberg also wanted to rise in this state, however, despite his invested funds, his campaign turned out to be a complete failure: he could win only in American Samoa and almost never even got close not only to the first but also to the second place. Bloomberg was under pressure from a party that would like to force him to withdraw from the race: his entry into the game could only further spray the voices of the moderate wing.

Senator Warren, hoping to win at least in Massachusetts, which has been representing for eight years, could not do this either. She was overtaken by both Biden and Sanders, which shows a loss of support among her main supporters — women, white voters with higher education and liberals.

The absolute triumph of the “Super Tuesday” was Biden with a victory in ten states: it seems that the tactics of the moderate Democrats to rally around him bore fruit.

This alignment was a serious failure for Sanders because he was predicted by more than half of all votes — about 700 out of 1357. Now, on the side of the “democratic socialist,” there will be only about 500 voters — less than Biden. Thus, it becomes clear that the Democrats were not able to choose the “unambiguous leader” for confronting Trump.

Democratic politicians personify the split that emerged in the party back in 2016. Party elites want Biden or Bloomberg to win: they believe that Sanders’s ideas are too radical, and therefore will not find the support of voters.

Moderate Democrats hope that he will not gain the votes of the delegates in 1991, and so-called second-ballot voting will be applied. During this procedure, delegates are exempted from being tied to candidates and are free to vote as they please, and the candidate needs to get 2375.5 votes. At the same time, the so-called “super delegates” — 771 representatives of party elites also take part in the vote. In this case, they are likely to rally around the establishment candidate and ensure victory for him. And, apparently, this scenario is becoming more and more real.

At the same time, the Republican Party believes that a protracted struggle in the ranks of the Democrats will ultimately benefit Trump. There is a difference: while the Republicans stand behind the incumbent as a united front, their opponents continue the internal struggle and cannot decide on the general course, only increasing the distrust of voters.

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