Barclays Bank experts believe that the global economic recovery, which was expected in the fourth quarter, may be suspended for some time due to the next wave of the spread of the coronavirus.
In this regard, the W-shaped version of economic recovery will become relevant. The epidemiological situation will require the introduction of additional restrictive measures, which will again lead to a drop in economic activity.
Barclays Bank experts expect the global economy to contract by 3.6% in 2020. Next year it could grow by 5%. If the impact of the second wave of the pandemic turns out to be weaker compared to the situation in the second quarter, then according to the results of the last quarter of this year, global GDP will grow by 9.7% in relation to the indicator for July-September.
The report says that the most difficult situation can develop in Europe. This region has seen a sharp increase in the number of diseases. China will end the year with a rise in gross domestic product. According to the forecast, it could be 2.3%.