Financiers interviewed by CNBC noticed a catch in reports of the success of the Chinese economy, allegedly recovering from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the crisis it caused. According to them, the available data do not allow making an unambiguous conclusion about overcoming difficulties.
Analysts point to the fact that the GDP growth, which the Chinese authorities like to talk about, was achieved in comparison with previous periods of this year, and not in relation to the same periods of the past (on an annualized basis or year-on-year).
In addition, the recovery of the national economy from the consequences of the coronavirus and related restrictions is uneven throughout the country: the indicators of large cities and coastal regions are improving much faster. Because of this, experts prefer to call the recovery ambiguous.
вЂњActually, two restorations are taking place in parallel. The government is trying to advertise the reconstruction of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong province, but this is by no means all of China, and not even most of it, вЂњsaid Leland Miller, head of research company China Beige Book. The rest of the country, he said, is seeing much more modest growth.
Moreover, some enterprises in landlocked provinces in the third quarter showed a decline not only compared to the same period last year but also relative to the second quarter. In addition to direct evidence of a decline, there are also indirect ones, the main one of which is a slowdown in corporate borrowing. Companies' borrowed capital requirements have dropped significantly, which should be reflected in future production volumes.
At the same time, analysts point to some reason for cautious optimism. It is mainly expressed in the increased number of trips around the country. At the end of September, when China celebrates a national holiday known as Golden Week, the number of passenger traffic was 600 million. This is still worse than last year's results (800 million people), but more than in previous periods.