In the early days after the November presidential elections, the US economy will face problems, predict financiers polled by CNBC. At the same time, most of them predict the defeat of the current head of state, Donald Trump.
Half of 20 respondents believe the fall of the main US stock index вЂ” the S&P 500 вЂ” is likely. Of these, five expect a five percent decline in the first month after the elections, two вЂ” 10 percent.
Most of the unfavorable projections are in favor of Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden's victory. However, there are also supporters of the negative scenario among those who believe that Trump will remain in office.
The main argument in favor of lowering key stock indices is the fear of investors about the implementation of Biden's tax plans. During the election campaign, the Democratic candidate has already announced that he will raise the rate for wealthy Americans with annual incomes above $400,000. In this case, economists fear, leading investors will lose motivation to build up their wealth in the American jurisdiction and will invest less in major companies, preferring to withdraw capital from the country.
At the same time, the result of the Senate elections will be an important factor. If the upper house of Congress remains under the control of the Republicans, it will be more difficult for Biden even if he wins to carry out tax reform, which means that the market may not sink so significantly.
When answering a separate question about the future of the US economy if Trump wins, 11 out of 20 experts indicated that the S&P 500 index could rise by five percent in the first month.