In the second quarter of 2020, about 400 million jobs were cut, although forecasts suggested a loss of 305 million.
The worst-case scenario for employment suggests that about 340 million people could lose their jobs in the second half of 2020. This is stated in the report of the International labor organization, published on Tuesday, June 30.
The consequences of the crisis due to the pandemic in the first half of the year significantly exceeded the forecasts of experts. In the second quarter of 2020, about 400 million full-time jobs were cut (if you take the 48-hour workweek). While may forecasts suggested the loss of 305 million jobs.
The loss of working hours in the second quarter occurred in the Americas (18.3%), Europe and Central Asia (13.9%), Asia-Pacific (13.5%), the Arab States (13.2%), and Africa (12.1%).
According to the new forecasts, the situation (the second half of 2020) can develop in three scenarios:
Optimistic. Employee activity will recover quickly, significantly increasing aggregate demand and job creation. In this scenario, 34 million jobs could be lost.
Base. A gradual recovery in economic activity in line with current forecasts, the removal of restrictions on working in offices, and the recovery of consumption and investment. Loss of 140 million full-time jobs.
Pessimistic. The second wave of coronavirus, the return of restrictions that will significantly slow the recovery of economies. Loss of 340 million jobs.